The 2025 Philippine elections are far more than a simple contest for political office; they represent a pivotal clash between two of the nation’s most powerful political families: the Marcoses and the Dutertes. The results, still unfolding, paint a complex picture of shifting alliances, enduring power, and the simmering tensions that will undoubtedly shape the 2028 presidential race.
Duterte’s Unwavering Grip on Davao:
Despite facing charges of crimes against humanity at The Hague, former President Rodrigo Duterte’s influence remains undeniable. His landslide victory in the Davao City mayoral race, securing a staggering 617,123 votes against the Marcos-backed Karlo Nograles (75,869 votes), is a stark demonstration of his enduring popularity and the Duterte family’s iron grip on Davao’s local politics. The fact that his son, Sebastian Duterte, is also leading in the vice mayoral race, further solidifies this dominance. The strong showing of other family members, Paolo, Omar, and Rigo Duterte, in their respective races underscores the family’s formidable political machine. Should Rodrigo Duterte win while incarcerated, Sebastian would assume the role of acting mayor.
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A Divided Senate: A Battleground for the Future:
The Senate race reveals a more nuanced picture. President Bongbong Marcos appears poised to secure roughly half the Senate seats, with allies like Imee Marcos, Pia Cayetano, Panfilo Lacson, Vicente Sotto III, and Lito Lapid expected to win. However, only a few allies of Vice President Sara Duterte, such as Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa, seem likely to secure a place in the “Magic 12.” This less-than-decisive victory for the Duterte camp leaves them vulnerable, particularly concerning the pending impeachment trial of Sara Duterte.
As the dust settles from a fiercely contested Senate race, the results do not offer a sweeping mandate but rather a complex and telling portrait of a nation at a political crossroads. The 2025 midterm elections, while ostensibly a routine democratic exercise, have turned the Philippine Senate into a litmus test for two towering figures in modern Philippine politics: President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte.
At first glance, Marcos appears to have clinched a modest victory. His political coalition is expected to secure around half of the Senate’s 24 seats, buoyed by the projected success of loyal allies such as Senator Imee Marcos, Senators Pia Cayetano and Panfilo “Ping” Lacson, and the enduring political figures Vicente “Tito” Sotto III and Lito Lapid. Their collective experience, name recall, and media-savvy campaigning played key roles in consolidating a Senate bloc friendly to the President.
But this is no landslide—no red wave to drown out dissent. Instead, it is a fractured mandate, a reflection of an electorate increasingly skeptical of dynastic dominance and calculated alliances. The Senate, long touted as the “conscience of the nation,” is once again emerging as an unpredictable force, a political arena where alliances are fluid, and the stakes are high.
The Duterte Factor: A Camp on the Defensive. In stark contrast, Vice President Sara Duterte’s political footprint in the Senate looks increasingly diminished. Once seen as the natural heir to her father’s populist legacy, Duterte’s grip on the national narrative has slipped. Of her allies, only Bong Go and Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa—a pair of loyalists with close ties to former President Rodrigo Duterte—are expected to breach the fabled “Magic 12.”
This lean showing has serious implications, particularly as murmurs grow louder about a potential impeachment trial targeting the Vice President. While details remain guarded and motives disputed, the very notion of an impeachment proceeding—regardless of its viability—places Duterte in a politically precarious position.
Her diminished Senate support base leaves her vulnerable. An impeachment trial, whether symbolic or substantive, could unravel her standing and force once-neutral players to pick a side in an escalating power struggle. In this regard, the Senate becomes more than just a legislative chamber—it morphs into a battleground for legitimacy and survival.
The Fragile Balance of Power, the implications of this Senate composition extend well beyond partisan politics. A half-friendly, half-hostile Senate signals a period of legislative gridlock and potential governance by negotiation. It challenges President Marcos to navigate a political minefield where every bill, every committee chairmanship, every public hearing becomes a test of influence and alliance.
More importantly, this dynamic sets the stage for a broader national conversation about the future of leadership in the Philippines. Are voters rejecting strongman populism in favor of measured governance? Or is this merely a pause in a pendulum swing, with the electorate hedging its bets?
Political Dynasties and Democratic Dissonance. This Senate race also lays bare the enduring power of political dynasties. The names Marcos, Cayetano, Lapid, and Duterte continue to dominate ballots, a testament to the enduring appeal—and polarizing nature—of familial legacies. Yet their electoral success is increasingly tempered by public scrutiny and growing demands for accountability and reform.
What emerges is a nation conflicted—yearning for change but tethered to familiarity; skeptical of authority but still drawn to the familiar faces that populate its political theater. Toward 2028: A Nation Watching and Waiting
With both Marcos and Duterte rumored to have presidential aspirations within their respective camps, the next three years are poised to be a strategic chess match. Every move in the Senate will be interpreted through the lens of 2028—every investigation, every alliance, every political stumble magnified.
And in that high-stakes game, the Senate becomes not just a legislative institution, but a mirror held up to the nation—reflecting its anxieties, its ambitions, and its enduring struggle to define what kind of democracy it truly wants.
In the end, this is not just about numbers in the Magic 12. It’s about what those numbers say about where we are—and where we are heading. And as the Philippines braces for the battles to come, one thing is clear: the Senate is not just divided. It is decisive.
The Impeachment of VP Sara Duterte: A High-Stakes Gamble
The impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte hangs heavy over the political landscape. A two-thirds majority (16 votes) in the Senate is required for her removal from office and lifetime disqualification from public service. The composition of the Senate, therefore, will be crucial in determining the outcome of this high-stakes trial. The relatively limited number of Duterte allies in the Senate significantly weakens their ability to prevent a successful impeachment.
The impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte casts a long shadow over the Philippine political landscape, representing a high-stakes gamble with potentially far-reaching consequences. The trial’s outcome hinges on a precarious balance of power within the Senate, where a two-thirds majority – a total of 16 votes – is required for her removal from office and subsequent lifetime disqualification from public service. This narrow margin transforms the proceedings into a knife-edge affair, with every Senator’s vote carrying immense weight.
The current political climate significantly impacts the likelihood of a successful impeachment. The relatively small number of Senators openly aligned with the Duterte administration weakens the Vice President’s defensive position. While the exact allegiances of some Senators remain fluid and subject to political maneuvering, the lack of a solid bloc of unwavering support puts her in a vulnerable position. This vulnerability stems not only from the numerical disadvantage but also from the potential for defections or shifts in allegiance as the trial progresses.
The trial itself will likely be a protracted and highly contentious affair. Expect intense scrutiny of the evidence presented, vigorous legal arguments, and a significant amount of political theater. The proceedings will undoubtedly be closely watched not only within the Philippines but also internationally, given the Vice President’s prominent role in the government and the broader implications of the outcome.
Beyond the immediate consequences for VP Duterte, the trial holds significant implications for the future of Philippine politics. A successful impeachment could dramatically reshape the political landscape, potentially triggering a power vacuum and shifting the balance of power within the ruling coalition. It could also embolden opposition forces and lead to increased political instability.
Conversely, an acquittal would likely bolster VP Duterte’s position and solidify her influence within the administration. It would also send a powerful message about the limits of accountability for high-ranking officials, potentially emboldening those who might otherwise be hesitant to challenge the established power structures.
The trial’s impact extends beyond the immediate political players. Public opinion will play a crucial role, influencing the decisions of Senators and shaping the broader narrative surrounding the proceedings. The media’s coverage will be pivotal in shaping public perception, and the potential for misinformation and biased reporting adds another layer of complexity to the situation.
In conclusion, the impeachment trial of VP Sara Duterte is far more than a legal proceeding; it is a critical juncture in Philippine politics. The outcome will have profound and lasting consequences, shaping the country’s political trajectory for years to come. The narrow margin for conviction, coupled with the complex web of political alliances and public opinion, makes this a high-stakes gamble with uncertain, yet undeniably significant, implications.
2025: A Prelude to 2028
With President Marcos serving only a single term, the 2025 elections serve as a crucial warm-up for the 2028 presidential race. Vice President Sara Duterte remains a strong potential candidate, and the apparent attempts to weaken her position through the impeachment proceedings suggest that the Marcos camp views her as a significant threat.
While midterm elections are typically a referendum on an incumbent administration’s performance, the 2025 Philippine polls offer far more than just a mid-course correction. They are, in essence, an overture to the looming political crescendo of 2028, when the country will once again choose its next president. And at the center of this evolving drama are two formidable figures: President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte.
As President Marcos nears the midpoint of his six-year term, the 2025 elections have become less about legislative balance and more about political succession. Bound by the one-term limit enshrined in the Constitution, Marcos cannot seek reelection. But that doesn’t mean he won’t seek to shape the narrative—and the outcome—of 2028. His moves suggest not a caretaker president coasting toward retirement, but a strategic operator trying to influence the post-Marcos era.
Nowhere is this clearer than in the intensifying rift between the Marcos and Duterte camps. Once perceived as uneasy allies following their 2022 electoral alliance, the two power blocs are now visibly on divergent trajectories. And the 2025 elections may well be remembered as the opening salvo in a quiet yet consequential succession war.
Vice President Sara Duterte remains one of the most potent political figures in the country. With her father’s formidable political legacy behind her, and her own brand of pragmatic populism, she is widely considered a top-tier contender for the presidency in 2028. But her path to Malacañang may be far more treacherous than her initial frontrunner status suggests.
The most ominous sign? The specter of impeachment.
Though still shrouded in political innuendo rather than hard evidence, the emerging chatter around an impeachment trial targeting the Vice President cannot be dismissed as idle rumor. In politics, timing is everything—and the surfacing of such threats just as the 2025 campaigns kick into high gear is more than coincidence. It’s calculus.
To suggest that the impeachment talk is politically motivated is not a stretch. If anything, it’s a time-tested tactic in Philippine politics: destabilize early, discredit consistently, and deny ruthlessly. By forcing Duterte into a defensive posture, her adversaries are attempting to blunt her appeal and exhaust her political capital before she can formally declare her candidacy in 2028.
Marcos loyalists, meanwhile, are rumored to be floating names for their own preferred successor—candidates who, while less commanding than Duterte in national surveys, are seen as safer bets to preserve the legacy and interests of the current administration. In this light, the 2025 elections are not about ideology or governance; they are about positioning, control, and neutralization.
A Divided Political Landscape
The electorate, for its part, finds itself navigating a divided political map. The Senate race offers a symbolic preview of the broader divide. While President Marcos appears poised to secure significant Senate representation through allies like Imee Marcos, Pia Cayetano, and Panfilo Lacson, Sara Duterte’s allies—most notably Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa—are barely scraping into the top ranks.
This imbalance in legislative support underscores the danger for Duterte. Without a strong presence in the Senate or House, she faces the dual challenge of defending her position and building a campaign infrastructure from outside the traditional power corridors.
And yet, this very vulnerability might endear her to voters seeking a narrative of resistance and redemption—two ingredients that have historically fueled electoral upsets in the Philippines.
What is unfolding now is not simply political theater; it is the groundwork for the next great battle over the Philippine presidency. The 2025 elections serve as the first major test of public sentiment since 2022, and their outcome will determine who controls the narrative going into the high-stakes years ahead.
Will President Marcos manage to secure a political heir—someone who can protect his interests and continue his agenda beyond 2028? Or will Sara Duterte weather the storm, emerge stronger from the impeachment clouds, and reassert her dominance as the true successor to her father’s enduring populist machine?
What is clear is this: the stage is being set. The alliances are forming. And the countdown has begun—not just to the midterms, but to a defining presidential race that could reshape the Philippines once again.
The battle lines are no longer hypothetical. 2025 is no longer just a midterm election. It is the first act of a larger political saga—a prelude to 2028.
The Irony of VP Duterte’s Anti-Dynasty Stance
The Duterte family’s near-total domination of Davao City’s political landscape creates a sharp contrast to Vice President Sara Duterte’s public pronouncements against political dynasties. This perceived hypocrisy has drawn significant criticism, with many questioning the sincerity of her calls for reform.
Vice President Sara Duterte’s recent declarations against political dynasties have sparked widespread attention, not because of the boldness of her rhetoric—but because of the glaring contradiction it presents when measured against the political reality back home in Davao City.
In a country where political dynasties have long dominated local and national politics, Duterte’s calls for reform might have been viewed as a welcome shift—an attempt to move the nation towards a more equitable and competitive democratic landscape. But coming from a member of one of the most prominent political dynasties in the Philippines, the message has been met not with applause, but with skepticism—and in some quarters, outright derision.
The Duterte family’s grip on Davao City is not merely symbolic—it is institutional and deeply entrenched. For over three decades, a Duterte has held either the mayoralty or other key political posts in the city. Sara Duterte, before ascending to the vice presidency, served multiple terms as mayor, following in the footsteps of her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, who ruled Davao for more than 20 years.
Even now, the Duterte name remains omnipresent in Davao politics. Various members of the clan have rotated through positions of power like gears in a well-oiled machine: Sara, her brothers Paolo and Sebastian, and their father, have all occupied roles that keep the family name embedded in the city’s governance structure. In the 2022 elections, Sebastian Duterte ran and won as mayor, succeeding Sara, while Paolo has served as a congressman. In essence, the city’s political roadmap has become a family tree.
This tightly woven network of influence represents exactly what Vice President Duterte recently spoke against: the monopolization of political power by a single family, which limits electoral competition and concentrates authority within hereditary lines. The irony has not been lost on the public.
Critics were quick to point out the disconnect between Duterte’s statements and her family’s political behavior. Social media erupted with biting commentary, with hashtags mocking her statements trending shortly after her remarks. Political analysts have questioned whether her pronouncements were genuine, or merely a strategic maneuver aimed at distancing herself from the increasingly controversial legacy of her father, or perhaps laying the groundwork for a more palatable public image in anticipation of a future presidential run.
“The sincerity of Vice President Duterte’s anti-dynasty stance is questionable at best,” said political science professor Amado Mendoza Jr. of the University of the Philippines. “You cannot preach against dynastic politics while being its most successful beneficiary.”
Indeed, the criticism taps into a broader frustration in the Philippines—where the 1987 Constitution explicitly discourages political dynasties, but where implementing laws to enforce this principle have repeatedly stalled in Congress, largely because many lawmakers themselves are part of such dynasties.
Sara Duterte’s statements could also be interpreted through a more cynical lens: as an attempt at political rebranding. With her father’s presidency leaving a complex and often polarizing legacy marked by human rights controversies and populist bravado, the younger Duterte might be seeking to carve out her own political identity—one that appears more progressive, moderate, or reformist.
But public perception is not easily swayed by rhetoric alone. Without concrete actions—such as advocating for and pushing actual anti-dynasty legislation or stepping back from dynastic practices in her own home turf—her words ring hollow.
It is also worth noting that Duterte has not offered any plans to address or unwind her family’s grip on Davao politics. Nor has she expressed support for specific measures that would curtail dynastic succession at the local or national level. The absence of a clear, actionable roadmap further feeds the narrative that her anti-dynasty stance is more symbolic than substantive.
The Duterte case is far from unique. The Philippines has long been home to powerful political families that dominate entire regions and often trade positions among relatives to sidestep term limits. From the Marcoses in Ilocos to the Estradas in San Juan, and the Binays in Makati, dynastic politics is a deeply rooted part of the country’s democratic fabric—or perhaps more accurately, its democratic dysfunction.
What sets the Duterte case apart, however, is the incongruity between message and messenger. Few political figures who benefit from dynasties have spoken as openly against them, which makes Duterte’s statements all the more jarring.
Calls for political reform, especially ones as long overdue and consequential as dismantling political dynasties, must begin with self-reflection and accountability. It is not enough to acknowledge that political dynasties are problematic while simultaneously perpetuating them. The credibility of any anti-dynasty advocate—especially one with dynastic roots—depends on their willingness to dismantle the systems that benefit them, not merely critique them.
Vice President Duterte may indeed harbor sincere aspirations for political reform. But if she wishes to lead by example, the path forward is clear and difficult: support legislation against dynasties, renounce future familial political succession, and use her platform to promote inclusive and competitive politics—not just in words, but in action.
Until then, her anti-dynasty rhetoric remains a paradox—one that underscores the deep-rooted contradictions in Philippine politics and the long road ahead toward genuine democratic reform.
International Implications:
The arrest of Rodrigo Duterte on charges of crimes against humanity has introduced a significant international dimension to the political conflict. Vice President Duterte has accused President Marcos of surrendering national sovereignty by allowing her father’s extradition to the International Criminal Court (ICC), further fueling the existing tensions.
A Deeper Meaning:
The 2025 elections are not merely a competition for positions; they represent a broader power struggle between two dominant political forces. The results offer a glimpse into the complex relationship, shifting power dynamics, and the uncertain future of Philippine politics. The battles fought in this election cycle are a clear indication of a new phase in the ongoing power struggle, with the outcome significantly impacting both local and national power structures, and ultimately determining who will prevail in the crucial 2028 presidential election. The coming years promise to be a period of intense political maneuvering and strategic alliances as both camps prepare for the next major showdown.