The 2025 Philippine Elections, A Proxy War Between Marcos and Duterte Dynasties

Cracks in the Dynasty: Philippine Midterms Shake Marcos-Duterte Alliance, Signal Return of Aquino Camp

A nation long governed by towering political dynasties has been jolted by the results of Monday’s mid-term elections, where nearly 18,000 positions were contested across the Philippines. What was expected to be a smooth consolidation of power for President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has instead revealed widening cracks in his political foundation — and perhaps, a slow but steady resurrection of opposition voices.

The elections, widely viewed as a proxy war between former allies Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte, have delivered a series of unexpected results that could upend the country’s political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential elections. With 80% of the vote counted, early projections show that Marcos-backed candidates have secured only six of the 12 Senate seats up for grabs — far fewer than the commanding majority his administration had hoped for.

Even more telling: one of those six victors was also endorsed by the Dutertes, highlighting the fragmentation of what was once a formidable political bloc. The top ranks of the Senate race, a traditional barometer of public sentiment, have been dominated not by Marcos allies but by loyalists of the Duterte camp and, in a twist few anticipated, a resurgent Aquino dynasty.

At the very top of the senatorial leaderboard sits Christopher “Bong” Go, long-time aide and confidant to former President Rodrigo Duterte. Not far behind is Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, the former national police chief who enforced Duterte’s brutal anti-drug campaign — the same policy that has landed Duterte in detention at The Hague on charges of crimes against humanity.

Despite his incarceration, Duterte’s influence remains deeply rooted in his hometown of Davao City, where he won the mayoral seat in a landslide, reasserting his family’s stronghold and reminding the nation that his political narrative is far from over.

A Family Divided

The Duterte political resurgence has also drawn a significant defector from the Marcos camp — none other than the president’s own sister, Senator Imee Marcos. Once a stalwart in her brother’s circle, Imee has now aligned herself with the Duterte bloc, amplifying the sense of discord within the ruling coalition.

“Imee’s move is more than symbolic,” said political analyst Dr. Teresa Mariano. “It reveals a shifting center of gravity in Philippine politics. The once-united Marcos-Duterte axis is unraveling, and that vacuum is already being filled.”

That vacuum may also spell trouble for Vice President Sara Duterte, who faces an impeachment trial that could determine her political future. The Senate — which acts as the jury in such proceedings — is now less clearly aligned with President Marcos. Senators, known for navigating alliances based on political expediency, may find their loyalties tested amid rising public scrutiny and their own ambitions.

Sara Duterte, once presumed to be Marcos’s anointed successor in 2028, has decried the trial as “political persecution.” Should the Senate vote to impeach her, she could be banned from holding public office — a development that would dramatically reshape the 2028 presidential field.

The Aquinos Return

In a turn of events that seemed implausible just a year ago, two figures with roots in the Aquino political lineage — Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino and his ally Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan — have emerged victorious in the senatorial race. Bam Aquino, a former senator and cousin of the late President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, has clinched second place in the vote count, a stunning comeback for a name many had written off.

“This is a very, very surprising result,” Aquino said, acknowledging the symbolic weight of his family’s return to national politics. “The Filipino people are clearly signaling that they want new voices, independent voices — or perhaps, familiar ones with a fresh message.”

For decades, the Aquino and Marcos families have stood on opposite sides of Philippine political history. The 1983 assassination of Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr. was the spark that ignited the People Power Revolution, leading to the downfall of Ferdinand Marcos Sr. in 1986. The reemergence of Aquino names in 2025, alongside a faltering Marcos dynasty, carries deep historical resonance.

What’s Next for the Senate — and the Nation?

The new Senate, composed of a volatile mix of Duterte loyalists, fractured Marcos allies, and a reinvigorated opposition, faces immediate challenges — none more politically charged than the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte.

How senators vote will not only determine her fate but may also foreshadow the power blocs leading into the next presidential election. Analysts suggest that what happens over the next few months in the halls of the Senate will have ripple effects well beyond Manila, shaping narratives of justice, accountability, and dynastic survival.

Meanwhile, the rise of non-aligned candidates — those not tethered to the Marcos or Duterte camps — could signal a growing appetite among voters for alternatives to the dynastic tug-of-war that has dominated Philippine politics for generations.

“The midterms weren’t just a referendum on Marcos or Duterte,” said Prof. Celia de la Peña, a historian at the University of the Philippines. “They were a test of how much control these families still have over the public imagination. The answer is: less than they thought.”

As the dust settles and final counts come in, one thing is certain — the 2025 mid-term elections may go down as a turning point in modern Philippine political history, one where dynasties clashed, alliances cracked, and a new political horizon began to take shape.

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Just two months after the dramatic arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte at Manila Airport, the powerful Duterte political dynasty has reaffirmed its dominance in the southern Philippines, turning local elections into a thunderous display of enduring influence and defiant loyalty.

Despite the shadow cast by Duterte’s unprecedented transfer to The Hague to face charges at the International Criminal Court (ICC), his family’s political stronghold in Davao City remains firmly intact. In a symbolic and strategic triumph, the Dutertes have not only weathered the legal and political firestorm but emerged with a reinforced grip on the region.
The March arrest of 80-year-old Rodrigo Duterte stunned the country and sent ripples across Southeast Asia. Approved by current President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the move was widely interpreted as the culmination of escalating hostilities between the Marcos and Duterte clans — a once uneasy alliance turned bitter rivalry.

Shortly after, the House of Representatives, dominated by Marcos-aligned lawmakers, voted to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte — the former president’s daughter and one of the country’s most popular political figures. The impeachment was a political earthquake, but if intended to diminish the Dutertes’ appeal, it may have backfired.

The Dynasty Endures
Rodrigo Duterte, though physically absent, loomed large over Monday’s elections. Running for mayor of Davao City — a post he previously held for over two decades — the former president secured a landslide victory over a younger rival from a lesser-known political family. Legally, Duterte remains a free man under Philippine law, as he has not been convicted of any crime.

With him unable to serve for now, his youngest son, Sebastian “Baste” Duterte, who served as incumbent mayor, won the vice-mayoral race. This positions him to act as de facto city leader during his father’s absence. Meanwhile, Duterte’s eldest son Paolo retained his congressional seat, and two of his grandchildren clinched local council posts.

The message was unmistakable: Davao is — and remains — Duterte country.

A Strategic South
The significance of maintaining control over Davao City extends far beyond local governance. For the Dutertes, Davao is their political nucleus — a launchpad for national campaigns and a fortress of grassroots support. It was from this southern metropolis that Rodrigo Duterte built his image as a hardliner who tamed crime and chaos, a narrative that resonated deeply with voters across the country and carried him to the presidency in 2016.

That mythos persists. In Davao, many residents continue to speak of the elder Duterte with reverence, crediting him with transforming the city into a more livable, secure place — albeit through methods that human rights groups have long decried as violent and extrajudicial.

A Nation Divided
The arrest of Duterte and the ensuing electoral outcomes have deepened the nation’s political rift. While the Marcos administration frames the ICC extradition as a step toward international accountability, critics accuse it of political persecution.

At the same time, the public spectacle of the feud between Marcos and Sara Duterte has gripped national attention, further overshadowing bread-and-butter issues such as inflation, corruption, and crumbling infrastructure.

Monday’s polls were emblematic of the Philippines’ enduring brand of politics: personality-driven, theatrically staged, and often emotionally charged. Amid sweltering heat of 33°C (91°F), voters queued for hours — some under makeshift tents, others fanning themselves with campaign flyers. Sporadic incidents of vote-counting machine failures and isolated violence were reported, but did little to dampen turnout.

Social media brimmed with slick campaign videos and fiery rhetoric, while live stages echoed with pop concerts and celebrity endorsements, once again reducing the democratic exercise to a quasi-entertainment spectacle.

With their power base intact and their patriarch commanding national headlines even from afar, the Dutertes are far from politically extinguished. Instead, they seem poised for a new chapter in their dynastic saga — one that now spans prison cells, courtrooms, and city halls.

Yet, the cost of this political survival may be steep. As the Duterte-Marcos feud festers, the country finds itself at a crossroads, caught between history’s unresolved grievances and the volatile power games of its ruling elite. For now, the Dutertes have won the south — but the battle for the soul of the nation rages on.

Bongbong Marcos: From Controversial Legacy to Presidential Power – A Calculated Gamble?

Manila, Philippines – The 2022 Philippine presidential election wasn’t just a victory for Bongbong Marcos; it was a masterclass in political rehabilitation. The son of the late Ferdinand Marcos Sr., whose regime was infamous for its human rights abuses and kleptocracy, ascended to the highest office, leveraging social media savvy and a carefully constructed narrative to rewrite history and win over a generation largely unfamiliar with the dark chapters of his family’s past.

Marcos’s path to Malacañang Palace was paved with strategic political maneuvering. After returning from exile in the 1990s, he methodically climbed the political ladder, serving as a provincial governor, congressman, and senator, building a base of support along the way. But it was his embrace of digital platforms that proved truly transformative.

Facebook became a battleground for narrative control, where the Marcos family legacy was recast as a “golden age” for the Philippines, skillfully sidestepping the atrocities of martial law. TikTok, meanwhile, witnessed a remarkable reimagining of a martial law anthem, transforming it into a viral Gen Z dance challenge – a testament to the power of online manipulation in shaping public perception.

His presidential bid, launched alongside Sara Duterte as his running mate, formed the formidable “uniTeam,” uniting the powerful Duterte political machine in the south with the Marcos dynasty’s influence in the north. The strategy proved devastatingly effective, resulting in a landslide victory with over 31 million votes – more than double his nearest rival.

Marcos’s campaign promise – “Judge me not by my ancestors, but by my actions” – resonated with many, but his presidency has been far from a straightforward continuation of Duterte’s policies. He has steered the Philippines closer to the US, adopting a more assertive stance against China in the South China Sea – a significant departure from his predecessor’s approach.

This shift, however, created friction within the uniTeam, culminating in a very public falling out with Sara Duterte. The allocation of the Education portfolio to Duterte, despite her ambition for the more powerful Defense position, and subsequent impeachment proceedings against her, signaled a clear fracture in their alliance. Furthermore, Marcos facilitated the arrest and transfer of Duterte’s father to the Hague to face charges related to the deadly drug war – a bold move with potentially far-reaching consequences.

Analysts suggest that Marcos’s calculated confrontation with the Dutertes was a high-stakes gamble. To succeed, he needed to secure control of the Senate. However, recent midterm election results paint a more complex picture, casting uncertainty over his political future and the long-term stability of his administration. The question remains: will Marcos’s calculated risks ultimately pay off, or will the ghosts of his family’s past continue to haunt his presidency?

Feuds, Dynasties, and Unfinished Battles: The Meaning Behind the Philippines’ 2025 Midterm Elections

Manila, Philippines – As dusk settled on May 12, the weight of democracy descended across the Philippine archipelago. With 317 congressional seats and nearly 18,000 local positions on the line, the 2025 midterm elections were more than just a numbers game—they were a mirror held up to the nation’s fractured soul, revealing enduring political dynasties, shifting allegiances, and a high-stakes family feud that continues to roil the country’s highest offices.

The unofficial results were swift and brutal in their clarity: entrenched political families once again dominated, their roots running deep into the machinery of local governance. From provincial halls to urban strongholds, incumbency—and the patronage and power that comes with it—remained the most potent campaign currency. Despite calls for reform and new leadership, familiar names prevailed.

Yet beyond the local victories and the reshuffling of municipal power, the real battle lies elsewhere: at the top of the Philippine political pyramid, where a once-allied duo has fractured into rivals, setting the stage for a bitter succession struggle with implications that stretch far beyond 2025.

Marcos vs. Duterte: Allies Turned Adversaries
President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., now three years into his six-year term, faces a curious paradox. Though still wielding executive power, his political capital has been tested by an open rift with his former running mate, Vice President Sara Duterte.

Their alliance, forged in 2021 out of electoral pragmatism, delivered a resounding landslide in 2022. Sara Duterte, then riding a wave of her father Rodrigo Duterte’s formidable popularity, accepted a secondary role on the ticket despite leading in pre-election surveys. But the victory papered over deep ideological and strategic divides.

What began as subtle distancing soon turned into open divergence. Marcos’s pivot away from Rodrigo Duterte’s pro-China stance and his controversial “war on drugs” became unmistakable. By 2024, Marcos was not only pursuing closer ties with the United States, but also publicly backing the International Criminal Court’s probe into the bloody anti-drug campaign.

The ultimate break came in 2025, with the dramatic arrest and extradition of Rodrigo Duterte to The Hague in March. Once unthinkable, it was now reality: the former president was in ICC custody, awaiting trial for alleged crimes against humanity.

The political earthquake this caused was felt nationwide. Sara Duterte, incensed and politically cornered, launched scathing attacks on the Marcos administration. Her allies scrambled to consolidate influence in the midterms, seeking to deliver a mandate that could shield her and restore her family’s political dominance.

But the results told a more nuanced story.

An Election Without a Clear Victor
While Duterte-aligned candidates retained significant local strongholds—particularly in Mindanao—they failed to deliver the sweeping rebuke to Marcos that some had anticipated. Conversely, Marcos-backed candidates made gains in key regions, but not enough to consolidate unassailable national momentum.

The Senate, always a bellwether of national sentiment, is now a patchwork of loyalties. Neither the Marcos nor Duterte blocs have secured dominance. The result? A volatile political terrain with no shortage of intrigue, where legislation will likely be forged through fragile coalitions and backroom deals.

Observers suggest that this ambiguity could freeze meaningful policy reforms, even as the country grapples with economic uncertainty, external pressures, and the looming specter of the 2028 presidential election.

What Lies Ahead
The 2025 midterm elections have not resolved the central drama of Philippine politics—they have merely clarified its contours. Marcos, emboldened by pockets of support but wary of overreach, must now navigate a political minefield as he prepares to steer the country through the remainder of his term.

Sara Duterte, for her part, remains a formidable political force, bruised but far from beaten. Her next moves—whether as a defiant vice president, an opposition leader, or a future presidential contender—will define not just her own fate, but potentially the shape of Philippine democracy for years to come.

As the dust settles, one thing is certain: the archipelago remains as politically dynamic—and unpredictable—as ever. And in this grand, unfinished story of power, vengeance, and legacy, the next chapter is already being written.

Duterte vs. Marcos: A Nation Divided as Senate Results Leave Power Struggle Unresolved

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines’ midterm Senate elections, billed as a decisive battle between the rival dynasties of Duterte and Marcos, have delivered a fragmented and inconclusive result — one that reveals the electorate’s continued polarization and the deepening political rivalry at the heart of government.

On paper, both camps can claim partial victories. Former President Rodrigo Duterte’s loyalists, the so-called “Duterten,” fielded a formidable slate of ten candidates, banking on residual public goodwill, Mindanaoan pride, and fervent anti-establishment sentiment. They also strategically endorsed two candidates from President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas (ABP), signaling a tactical — if uneasy — political overlap.

In the end, only half of the Duterten slate prevailed. Christopher “Bong” Go, the ever-loyal Duterte confidant, clinched the most votes of any candidate — a testament to his enduring grassroots appeal and near-ubiquitous presence in communities nationwide. He was followed by fellow Duterte-era stalwart Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, whose law-and-order credentials continue to resonate with a public still nostalgic for Duterte’s hardline approach.

Also victorious was Rodante Marcoleta, a polarizing broadcaster with links to the Iglesia Ni Cristo, a religious group whose voting power has long been considered a prized political asset. The group’s support, once again, proved to be a kingmaker.

Yet, while the Dutertes may have flexed electoral muscle, the Marcos camp quietly expanded its legislative footprint. With five senators winning under the Alyansa banner — including Imee Marcos and Camille Villar, both endorsed by the Dutertes — President Marcos has maneuvered to keep his coalition numerically stronger, if not ideologically united.

Most significantly, Erwin Tulfo’s fourth-place finish signals Marcos’s continued ability to harness mass media personalities for electoral gain. Tulfo’s blend of populist rhetoric and welfare-focused messaging struck a chord among economically anxious voters.

The Alyansa roster also brought back seasoned political survivors: Panfilo “Ping” Lacson, Tito Sotto, Pia Cayetano, and Lito Lapid — all household names who lend gravitas and legislative experience to Marcos’s bloc. These victories represent an institutional consolidation of influence, potentially useful in any coming Senate deliberations over the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte.

A Deadlock in Disguise?

Despite these gains, the path forward for the Marcos administration remains anything but clear. The Senate remains delicately balanced. The reentry of opposition figures Paolo “Bam” Aquino and Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan underscores the electorate’s desire for checks and balances amid growing disillusionment with elite political quarrels.

Furthermore, several senators not up for reelection remain noncommittal, their allegiances more pragmatic than ideological. The Duterte name still commands fierce loyalty in Mindanao and parts of the Visayas, with Rodrigo Duterte recently securing another mayoral term in Davao while awaiting trial in The Hague. His daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, retains a loyal base even as she faces impeachment — a legal and political ordeal that could plunge the nation deeper into division.

For Marcos, the challenge is not only to secure the elusive 16 Senate votes needed for conviction but to maintain the semblance of unity within his own ranks. For the Dutertes, their political apparatus remains potent but vulnerable to erosion — especially if legal battles escalate or if internal cracks emerge.

What this election laid bare is not a definitive triumph for either side but a perpetuation of a bitter dynastic feud playing out in the public arena. Behind the polished campaign ads and recycled slogans lies a country caught between nostalgia for strongman rule and the cautious allure of stability under Marcos.

This uneasy equilibrium — part theater, part trench warfare — now shifts to the Senate floor, where allegiances are mutable, and every vote carries the weight of a political future. With 2028 looming and the electorate watching closely, senators will be highly attuned to public sentiment, wary of choosing sides too early in a conflict that promises to define the next chapter of Philippine democracy.

The struggle between the Dutertes and Marcoses has become more than just a power play. It is a test of the country’s democratic resilience, its institutional maturity, and its electorate’s appetite for both accountability and continuity. For now, the Senate stands as a battleground where neither dynasty can afford to lose — and the nation watches, wary and weary, as the long game unfolds.